Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pisa SC vs. Palermo FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$2.1K
$119.3
44.2¢ → 40.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$156.37 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 44.7¢ | $514.05 | $465.77 | -$48.28 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.1¢ | $70 | $77.76 | +$7.76 | 58% 5760-4227 (9987) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $55.16 | $58.61 | +$3.45 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
us391CTRInvested
$1,376.07
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$156.37
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
Invested
$514.05
Value
$465.77
PnL
-$48.28
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$70
Value
$77.76
PnL
+$7.76
Record
58%
5760-4227 (9987)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$55.16
Value
$58.61
PnL
+$3.45
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.