Will Palermo FC win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 81¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$21.95

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 81.2¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares10,842

Combined PnL+$27.39

Yes5 traders

Total Value$310.9

Total Shares2,405

Combined PnL-$49.34

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 98¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$0.96	93% 811-57 (868)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 68.4¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$23.27	50% 219-221 (440)
RN1	Noavg 97.4¢	$959.64	$957.67	-$1.97	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 71¢	$347.02	$354.35	+$7.33	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$208.98	$201.38	-$7.6	65% 1667-897 (2564)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$56	$62	+$6	56% 140-110 (250)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$89.93	$25.62	-$64.31	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$5.24	$21.79	+$16.55	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 70¢	$22.21	$19.99	-$2.22	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$8.8	$10.74	+$1.94	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.1	$0.11	+$0.02	50% 12125-12330 (24455)

Momo63

Invested

$5,062.03

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$0.96

Record

93%

811-57 (868)

Kyn008

Invested

$2,848.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$23.27

Record

50%

219-221 (440)

RN1

Invested

$959.64

Value

$957.67

PnL

-$1.97

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$347.02

Value

$354.35

PnL

+$7.33

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$208.98

Value

$201.38

PnL

-$7.6

Record

65%

1667-897 (2564)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56

Value

$62

PnL

+$6

Record

56%

140-110 (250)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.93

Value

$25.62

PnL

-$64.31

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.24

Value

$21.79

PnL

+$16.55

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

foooool<$100

Invested

$22.21

Value

$19.99

PnL

-$2.22

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$10.74

PnL

+$1.94

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.9%

81.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.