Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Pisa SC vs. Palermo FC end in a draw?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 34¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$4.4K
$534.1
29.5¢ → 34¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $3.4K | $3.9K | +$513.08 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 72.2¢ | $144.28 | $154.8 | +$10.52 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $135.33 | $133 | -$2.33 | 59% 2526-1758 (4284) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $69.75 | $79.52 | +$9.77 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $87 | $69.43 | +$0.53 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $28.7 | $30.54 | +$1.03 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $5.35 | $6.8 | +$1.45 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $3.25 | $3.3 | +$0.06 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
Invested
$3,388.15
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$513.08
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
Invested
$144.28
Value
$154.8
PnL
+$10.52
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$135.33
Value
$133
PnL
-$2.33
Record
59%
2526-1758 (4284)
poshposh<$100Invested
$69.75
Value
$79.52
PnL
+$9.77
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$87
Value
$69.43
PnL
+$0.53
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$28.7
Value
$30.54
PnL
+$1.03
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$1.45
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.