Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Calcio Padova win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 44¢ · $791 held · ends Oct 27

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$791.23

Combined PnL

$11.46

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 44¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$567.43

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL+$18.72

No2 traders

Total Value$223.8

Total Shares400

Combined PnL-$7.26

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RI RichieRicherCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$519.93	$538.5	+$18.57	53% 689-618 (1307)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 58.2¢	$194.67	$187.4	-$7.26	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 56¢	$36.4	$36.4	+$0	58% 27870-20508 (48378)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.8¢	$28.78	$28.93	+$0.15	59% 44263-30624 (74887)

RichieRicherCTR

Yes

Invested

$519.93

Value

$538.5

PnL

+$18.57

Record

53%

689-618 (1307)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$194.67

Value

$187.4

PnL

-$7.26

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$36.4

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

27870-20508 (48378)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.78

Value

$28.93

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.