Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 56¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 31

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.3K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 55.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares35,896

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$26.92

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$5.75

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 51.9¢	$12.5K	$13.6K	+$1.1K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$149.57	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$325.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$175.5
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$150	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 51.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$161.64	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52¢	$638.6	$665.93	+$30.78	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
sapupu	Noavg 51¢	$550	$544.74	-$5.26	59% 71-50 (121)
HRTrading	Noavg 51.9¢	$160.73	$174.95	+$14.22	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 57.5¢	$140.61	$121.54	-$19.07	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.5¢	$99.02	$77.55	-$21.47
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$41.58	$43.98	+$2.4
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$89.21	$90.45	+$1.25	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47¢	$41.36	$48.4	+$7.04
└ No leg	Noavg 51.2¢	$47.85	$42.05	-$5.79
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$24.41	$18.66	-$5.75	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$8.26	$8.26	+$0	52% 2623-2375 (4998)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$12,518.76

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$5,124

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$149.57

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Both legs:

No$3,77452¢+$325.07

Yes$1,35050¢-$175.5

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$3,180

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$150

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,618.25

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$161.64

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$638.6

Value

$665.93

PnL

+$30.78

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

sapupu

Invested

$550

Value

$544.74

PnL

-$5.26

Record

59%

71-50 (121)

HRTrading

Invested

$160.73

Value

$174.95

PnL

+$14.22

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$140.61

Value

$121.54

PnL

-$19.07

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Both legs:

Yes$99.0257.5¢-$21.47

No$41.5852¢+$2.4

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$89.21

Value

$90.45

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

Both legs:

Invested

$24.41

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$5.75

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.26

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2623-2375 (4998)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.