Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mantova 1911 win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 28¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$77.57

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 27.5¢

-37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,136

Combined PnL-$18.41

No7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,033

Combined PnL+$95.98

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fraj0laCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$500	$471.59	-$28.41	63% 226-130 (356)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$430	$435	+$5	57% 134-102 (236)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$430	$435	+$5	65% 1204-649 (1853)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 57¢	$266.19	$357.26	+$91.07	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 56¢	$308.45	$321.26	+$12.81	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
FO foooool	Noavg 74.9¢	$312.49	$301.1	-$11.39	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56.8¢	$298.78	$295.75	+$3.97	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$70.8	$73.05	+$2.26	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 68¢	$16.56	$13.76	-$2.8	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 73¢	$11.69	$11.77	+$0.08	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

fraj0laCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$471.59

PnL

-$28.41

Record

63%

226-130 (356)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Yes

Invested

$430

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

134-102 (236)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Yes

Invested

$430

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

65%

1204-649 (1853)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$266.19

Value

$357.26

PnL

+$91.07

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$308.45

Value

$321.26

PnL

+$12.81

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

foooool

Invested

$312.49

Value

$301.1

PnL

-$11.39

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$298.78

Value

$295.75

PnL

+$3.97

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$70.8

Value

$73.05

PnL

+$2.26

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$16.56

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$2.8

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.69

Value

$11.77

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.