Will US Cremonese win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$22.88

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 54.5¢

-23% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,640

Combined PnL-$112.39

Yes6 traders

Total Value$619.56

Total Shares1,792

Combined PnL+$89.51

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA Takon88	Noavg 71¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$113.2	60% 43-29 (72)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$258	$298.04	+$40.03	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$174	$201	+$27	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$87.85	$88.66	+$0.81	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$52.99	$70.07	+$17.08	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$40.02	$46.23	+$6.21	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$4.15	$3.3	-$0.86	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$0.89	$0.93	+$0.04	50% 32601-32144 (64745)

Takon88

Invested

$1,786.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$113.2

Record

60%

43-29 (72)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$258

Value

$298.04

PnL

+$40.03

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$174

Value

$201

PnL

+$27

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

foooool<$100

Invested

$87.85

Value

$88.66

PnL

+$0.81

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.99

Value

$70.07

PnL

+$17.08

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.02

Value

$46.23

PnL

+$6.21

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.