Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 36¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$4.5K
$44.36
44.1¢ → 36¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$92.13 | 53% 1100-972 (2072) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 44.5¢ | $696.35 | $712.32 | +$15.97 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 55.9¢ | $716.2 | $697.79 | -$18.4 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 56¢ | $538.9 | $481 | -$57.9 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 53¢ | $347.68 | $354.24 | +$6.56 | 50% 215-218 (433) |
 RN1 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $140.67 | $147.58 | +$6.92 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $28.56 | $27.8 | -$0.76 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $2.79 | $2.64 | -$0.16 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$2,026.94
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$92.13
Record
53%
1100-972 (2072)
Invested
$696.35
Value
$712.32
PnL
+$15.97
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888Invested
$716.2
Value
$697.79
PnL
-$18.4
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$538.9
Value
$481
PnL
-$57.9
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$347.68
Value
$354.24
PnL
+$6.56
Record
50%
215-218 (433)
RN1Invested
$140.67
Value
$147.58
PnL
+$6.92
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$28.56
Value
$27.8
PnL
-$0.76
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.79
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$0.16
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.