Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Empoli FC vs. SS Juve Stabia end in a draw?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 50¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$85.98
70¢ → 49.5¢
-29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 70¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$157.38 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LZ lzh1CTR | Noavg 69¢ | $849.38 | $886.31 | +$36.93 | 43% 471-634 (1105) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 30¢ | $851.79 | $795 | -$99.38 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 73.8¢ | $214.58 | $216.65 | +$2.08 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $91.48 | $88.07 | -$0.26 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31¢ | $59.52 | $53.76 | -$0.96 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68¢ | $31.96 | $34.31 | +$0.71 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $72.21 | $65.09 | -$10.61 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $2.83 | $2.4 | -$0.42 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.4 | +$0 | 58% 18783-13847 (32630) |
Invested
$1,591.54
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$157.38
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$849.38
Value
$886.31
PnL
+$36.93
Record
43%
471-634 (1105)
RN1Invested
$851.79
Value
$795
PnL
-$99.38
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$214.58
Value
$216.65
PnL
+$2.08
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$91.48
Value
$88.07
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.21
Value
$65.09
PnL
-$10.61
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.42
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
18783-13847 (32630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.