Will US Cremonese win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 65¢ · $63K held · ended Oct 31

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$62.9K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 65¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$31.5K

Total Shares76,023

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No8 traders

Total Value$31.4K

Total Shares50,196

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 39.6¢	$30.0K	$31.4K	+$1.4K	48% 147-160 (307)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 60¢	$21.2K	$22.6K	+$1.4K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 61.9¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$252.5	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 60¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$95.52	50% 2513-2497 (5010)
HRTrading	Noavg 60¢	$331.1	$339.69	+$8.59	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
tradecraft	Noavg 60¢	$176.91	$172.49	-$4.42	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
poshposh	Noavg 61¢	$100.65	$104.78	+$4.13	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.7¢	$66.35	$59.26	-$7.08	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$50.99	$53.12	+$2.13	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.1¢	$36.29	$40.12	+$3.83	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 60¢	$6.44	$6.28	-$0.16	51% 226-220 (446)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$30,042.53

Value

$31.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

147-160 (307)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$21,204.63

Value

$22.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$4,640

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$252.5

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$3,820.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$95.52

Record

50%

2513-2497 (5010)

HRTrading

Invested

$331.1

Value

$339.69

PnL

+$8.59

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

tradecraft

Invested

$176.91

Value

$172.49

PnL

-$4.42

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

poshposh

Invested

$100.65

Value

$104.78

PnL

+$4.13

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.35

Value

$59.26

PnL

-$7.08

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$50.99

Value

$53.12

PnL

+$2.13

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.29

Value

$40.12

PnL

+$3.83

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

226-220 (446)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.