Will Mantova 1911 win on 2026-09-06?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $5K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$5.4K
$86.63
62.1¢ → 63.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$63.48 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 51.1¢ | $321.95 | $356.74 | +$34.8 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $50 | $49.61 | -$0.39 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $53.9 | $44.45 | -$9.45 | 59% 31848-22485 (54333) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.13 | $3.32 | -$1.8 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$5,030.38
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$63.48
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$321.95
Value
$356.74
PnL
+$34.8
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$50
Value
$49.61
PnL
-$0.39
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
Invested
$53.9
Value
$44.45
PnL
-$9.45
Record
59%
31848-22485 (54333)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.13
Value
$3.32
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.