Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 2 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cesena FC vs. Empoli FC: O/U 2.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 49¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 27

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$93.1

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 48.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,106

Combined PnL+$218.12

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,220

Combined PnL-$125.03

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA Takon88CTR	Overavg 48¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$166.33	60% 43-29 (72)
us391	Underavg 51.6¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$126.09	51% 1631-1570 (3201)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 51.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$33.4	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$25.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$871	$863.28	-$7.72
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$51.8	53% 1100-972 (2072)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.9¢	$644	$626.2	-$30.2	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 50.9¢	$232.88	$261.33	+$28.44	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 50¢	$70	$69.3	-$0.7	58% 5721-4201 (9922)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 51¢	$69.87	$69.19	-$0.68	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 57.2¢	$62.72	$67.5	+$4.78	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 51¢	$51	$50.5	-$0.5	51% 1209-1141 (2350)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 53¢	$10.6	$9.8	-$0.8	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.94	$3.66	+$0.72	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

Takon88CTR

Over

Invested

$3,193.5

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$166.33

Record

60%

43-29 (72)

us391

Under

Invested

$3,142.79

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$126.09

Record

51%

1631-1570 (3201)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,313

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$33.4

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

Both legs:

Under$1,44251.4¢-$25.68

Over$87149.9¢-$7.72

rabbitfoot1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,691.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$51.8

Record

53%

1100-972 (2072)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$644

Value

$626.2

PnL

-$30.2

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$232.88

Value

$261.33

PnL

+$28.44

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$69.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

58%

5721-4201 (9922)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$69.87

Value

$69.19

PnL

-$0.68

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$62.72

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$4.78

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$51

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

1209-1141 (2350)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$10.6

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.94

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.