Cesena FC vs. Empoli FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.2K
$212.71
45.4¢ → 54¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 46¢ | $489.44 | $611.8 | +$122.36 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 44¢ | $198.73 | $259.71 | +$60.98 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 45.4¢ | $179.63 | $180.17 | +$0.54 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 45.5¢ | $122.06 | $139.55 | +$29.19 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $18.8 | $18.4 | -$0.4 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 44.8¢ | $9.21 | $9.46 | +$0.25 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $1.54 | $1.33 | -$0.21 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$489.44
Value
$611.8
PnL
+$122.36
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$198.73
Value
$259.71
PnL
+$60.98
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$179.63
Value
$180.17
PnL
+$0.54
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
VeryLucky888Invested
$122.06
Value
$139.55
PnL
+$29.19
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$0.4
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$9.21
Value
$9.46
PnL
+$0.25
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.54
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$0.21
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.