Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$2.2K
-$45.87
80.2¢ → 61.5¢
-23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 85¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | -$387.36 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $256.56 | $634.42 | +$377.86 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 66.1¢ | $225.7 | $202.02 | -$23.68 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
FO foooool | Noavg 72¢ | $174.15 | $153.55 | -$20.6 | 50% 10883-10699 (21582) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 58¢ | $144.01 | $151.57 | +$8.56 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 58.1¢ | $25.66 | $26.38 | +$0.72 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $6.15 | -$2.25 | 58% 18669-13724 (32393) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.93 | +$0.03 | 51% 6015-5713 (11728) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $0.78 | $1.65 | +$0.87 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
Invested
$1,392.67
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$387.36
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
RN1CTRInvested
$256.56
Value
$634.42
PnL
+$377.86
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
Invested
$225.7
Value
$202.02
PnL
-$23.68
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Invested
$174.15
Value
$153.55
PnL
-$20.6
Record
50%
10883-10699 (21582)
VeryLucky888Invested
$144.01
Value
$151.57
PnL
+$8.56
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.66
Value
$26.38
PnL
+$0.72
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$6.15
PnL
-$2.25
Record
58%
18669-13724 (32393)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.93
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
6015-5713 (11728)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.87
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.