Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 37¢ · $74K held · ended Oct 28

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$74.3K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 36.5¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$33.2K

Total Shares62,817

Combined PnL-$518.18

No5 traders

Total Value$23.9K

Total Shares45,478

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 53.7¢	$32.7K	$32.3K	-$438.34	48% 129-138 (267)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 46¢	$8.2K	$9.8K	+$1.6K	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
aibaby	Noavg 48.5¢	$10.0K	$9.7K	-$313.19	53% 98-88 (186)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 46.3¢	$9.3K	$9.5K	+$220.82	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.3¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	+$175.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$45.82
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Yesavg 50.1¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$339.85	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.1¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	+$202.98
└ No leg	Noavg 47.7¢	$900.98	$1.0K	+$136.88
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$22.15	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$54.76
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$831.6	$864.21	+$32.61
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$127.09	50% 2463-2457 (4920)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 48.1¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$3.73	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
HRTrading	Noavg 46¢	$625.13	$746.57	+$121.43	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 52¢	$671.48	$588.1	-$83.38	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 51.4¢	$309.18	$284.16	-$25.02	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.4¢	$209.3	$185.19	-$24.12
└ No leg	Noavg 55¢	$99.88	$98.97	-$0.91
SA Saber-greedCTR	Yesavg 52¢	$168.02	$171.25	+$3.23	59% 2528-1758 (4286)
FF ff3364CTR	Yesavg 42.8¢	$113.3	$112.63	-$0.67	50% 786-786 (1572)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$17.44	$18.42	+$0.98	50% 32798-32351 (65149)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$32,720.31

Value

$32.3K

PnL

-$438.34

Record

48%

129-138 (267)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$8,214.79

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

aibaby

Invested

$9,989.79

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$313.19

Record

53%

98-88 (186)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$9,338.06

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$220.82

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

No$6,95046.3¢+$175.01

Yes$2,388.0652¢+$45.82

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,503.23

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$339.85

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

Both legs:

Yes$4,236.4750.1¢+$202.98

No$900.9847.7¢+$136.88

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,674.47

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$22.15

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

No$1,842.8748.4¢-$54.76

Yes$831.651¢+$32.61

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,338.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$127.09

Record

50%

2463-2457 (4920)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,549.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$3.73

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

HRTrading

Invested

$625.13

Value

$746.57

PnL

+$121.43

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$671.48

Value

$588.1

PnL

-$83.38

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$309.18

Value

$284.16

PnL

-$25.02

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Yes$209.351.4¢-$24.12

No$99.8855¢-$0.91

Saber-greedCTR

Yes

Invested

$168.02

Value

$171.25

PnL

+$3.23

Record

59%

2528-1758 (4286)

ff3364CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.3

Value

$112.63

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

786-786 (1572)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.44

Value

$18.42

PnL

+$0.98

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.