Benevento Calcio vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 4.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 90¢ · $719 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$719
-$294.58
83.6¢ → 90.4¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 80.7¢ | $726 | $450 | -$276 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 97.7¢ | $192.53 | $193.45 | +$0.92 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 80.5¢ | $29.79 | $29.97 | +$0.18 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $37.26 | $23 | -$14.26 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 97.9¢ | $18.21 | $12.01 | -$6.2 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $5.67 | $6.27 | +$0.6 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.8¢ | $3.52 | $3.71 | +$0.19 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2¢ | $0.61 | $0.6 | -$0 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$726
Value
$450
PnL
-$276
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$192.53
Value
$193.45
PnL
+$0.92
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.18
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$37.26
Value
$23
PnL
-$14.26
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.21
Value
$12.01
PnL
-$6.2
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$6.27
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.71
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.