Benevento Calcio vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 3.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 89¢ · $749 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$748.62
-$114.92
67.3¢ → 89¢
+32% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 63.7¢ | $573 | $450 | -$123 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 93¢ | $111.6 | $112.2 | +$0.6 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $69.93 | $55.5 | -$14.43 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 77.7¢ | $42.74 | $51.43 | +$8.69 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $25.41 | $38.5 | +$13.09 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $35.24 | $35.49 | +$0.25 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $4.07 | $4.26 | +$0.18 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $1.55 | $1.26 | -$0.3 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$573
Value
$450
PnL
-$123
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$111.6
Value
$112.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$69.93
Value
$55.5
PnL
-$14.43
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$42.74
Value
$51.43
PnL
+$8.69
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$25.41
Value
$38.5
PnL
+$13.09
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$35.24
Value
$35.49
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$4.07
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$0.18
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.