Benevento Calcio vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 89%
$3.0K
$126.49
42.3¢ → 71¢
+68% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 39.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.5K | +$442.61 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 44.3¢ | $1.0K | $468.63 | -$543.77 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 38.3¢ | $342.88 | $432.62 | +$94.17 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 65.2¢ | $211.12 | $257.4 | +$46.28 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
FO foooool | Underavg 50.6¢ | $115 | $161.83 | +$46.83 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 39.6¢ | $113.93 | $141.12 | +$27.19 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $36.18 | $36.41 | +$0.23 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $22.5 | $34.29 | +$11.79 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 68.6¢ | $7.27 | $8.43 | +$1.16 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$1,016.8
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$442.61
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,012.4
Value
$468.63
PnL
-$543.77
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
VeryLucky888Invested
$342.88
Value
$432.62
PnL
+$94.17
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$211.12
Value
$257.4
PnL
+$46.28
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$115
Value
$161.83
PnL
+$46.83
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$113.93
Value
$141.12
PnL
+$27.19
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$36.18
Value
$36.41
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$34.29
PnL
+$11.79
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.27
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$1.16
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.