Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Benevento Calcio, while the market favors US Catanzaro 1929 (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Benevento Calcio (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Benevento Calcio (60%) · Benevento Calcio at 32¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Benevento Calcio
5
Benevento Calcio 60%
$1.2K
$26.85
31.7¢ → 32¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBenevento Calcio at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors US Catanzaro 1929 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Benevento Calcioavg 31¢ | $588.56 | $607.08 | +$18.52 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
UP UpTheBlues | US Catanzaro 1929avg 63.8¢ | $426.83 | $428.04 | +$1.21 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Benevento Calcioavg 36¢ | $56.15 | $58.49 | +$2.34 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Benevento Calcioavg 36¢ | $44.17 | $46.24 | +$2.07 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 HRTrading<$100 | US Catanzaro 1929avg 67.1¢ | $14.37 | $17.09 | +$2.72 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$588.56
Value
$607.08
PnL
+$18.52
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$426.83
Value
$428.04
PnL
+$1.21
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$56.15
Value
$58.49
PnL
+$2.34
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$44.17
Value
$46.24
PnL
+$2.07
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.37
Value
$17.09
PnL
+$2.72
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.