Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Benevento Calcio win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$11.32
40.4¢ → 40¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0 | 51% 1630-1570 (3200) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 42.4¢ | $472.93 | $259.7 | -$11.32 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 42.6¢ | $174.09 | $171.43 | -$2.67 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.6¢ | $103.7 | $97.27 | -$6.43 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57¢ | $70.39 | $74.15 | +$3.76 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.