Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-10-27?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 21¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$161.04
54.7¢ → 20.5¢
-63% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 50¢ | $374 | $586.79 | +$212.79 | 50% 24141-23759 (47900) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 55¢ | $761.54 | $394.62 | -$366.92 | 58% 40444-29225 (69669) |
SA Saber-greed | Yesavg 45¢ | $259.74 | $282.82 | -$2.89 | 59% 2514-1740 (4254) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $162.74 | $163.6 | +$0.41 | 58% 27876-20518 (48394) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.4¢ | $123.61 | $122.65 | -$0.96 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43¢ | $39.13 | $40.95 | +$1.37 | |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $62.41 | $65.97 | +$3.56 | 50% 10447-10312 (20759) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.1¢ | $16.66 | $8.15 | -$8.51 | 54% 2625-2252 (4877) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $5.08 | $6.01 | +$0.93 | 60% 9127-6066 (15193) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $1.65 | $1.65 | +$0 | 52% 5829-5447 (11276) |
Invested
$374
Value
$586.79
PnL
+$212.79
Record
50%
24141-23759 (47900)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$761.54
Value
$394.62
PnL
-$366.92
Record
58%
40444-29225 (69669)
Invested
$259.74
Value
$282.82
PnL
-$2.89
Record
59%
2514-1740 (4254)
Invested
$162.74
Value
$163.6
PnL
+$0.41
Record
58%
27876-20518 (48394)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.41
Value
$65.97
PnL
+$3.56
Record
50%
10447-10312 (20759)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.66
Value
$8.15
PnL
-$8.51
Record
54%
2625-2252 (4877)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5.08
Value
$6.01
PnL
+$0.93
Record
60%
9127-6066 (15193)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
5829-5447 (11276)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.