Will SS Arezzo win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $90 held · ended Nov 1

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$89.8

Combined PnL

-$17.41

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$88.77

Total Shares92

Combined PnL+$2.71

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.04

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$20.12

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$53.46	$55.17	+$1.71	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 96¢	$28.8	$28.8	+$0	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.8	$4.8	+$1	58% 18784-13847 (32631)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$21.15	$1.04	-$20.12	59% 46920-33177 (80097)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$53.46

Value

$55.17

PnL

+$1.71

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.15

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$20.12

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.