M25 Norman, OK: Tyler Zink vs Charlie Swaine

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tyler Zink (17%) · Tyler Zink at 82¢ · $338 held · ends Nov 4

Tyler Zink82¢Charlie Swaine18¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tyler Zink

Consensus Traders

Tyler Zink 17%

Total Value

$337.87

Combined PnL

-$45.9

Research grade

NeutralTyler Zink at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tyler Zink

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tyler Zink82%

Charlie Swaine19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tyler Zink1 trader

Total Value$189.66

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$3.98

Charlie Swaine5 traders

Total Value$148.2

Total Shares860

Combined PnL-$49.87

Tyler Zink — 17%Charlie Swaine — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Tyler Zinkavg 84.4¢	$227.88	$189.66	+$3.98	58% 40808-29511 (70319)
RN1CTR	Charlie Swaineavg 27.5¢	$150.92	$106.83	-$44.09	54% 55758-47850 (103608)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Charlie Swaineavg 14.4¢	$38.85	$34.97	-$3.88	59% 44657-31054 (75711)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Charlie Swaineavg 19¢	$6.96	$4.76	-$2.2	55% 1688-1395 (3083)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Charlie Swaineavg 50¢	$1	$0.99	-$0.01	61% 1733-1088 (2821)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Charlie Swaineavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.65	+$0.3	47% 2415-2700 (5115)

VeryLucky888

Tyler Zink

Invested

$227.88

Value

$189.66

PnL

+$3.98

Record

58%

40808-29511 (70319)

RN1CTR

Charlie Swaine

Invested

$150.92

Value

$106.83

PnL

-$44.09

Record

54%

55758-47850 (103608)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Charlie Swaine

Invested

$38.85

Value

$34.97

PnL

-$3.88

Record

59%

44657-31054 (75711)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Charlie Swaine

Invested

$6.96

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$2.2

Record

55%

1688-1395 (3083)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Charlie Swaine

Invested

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

61%

1733-1088 (2821)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Charlie Swaine

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.3

Record

47%

2415-2700 (5115)

Research grade

NeutralTyler Zink at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tyler Zink

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tyler Zink wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.