Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Johan Alexander Rodriguez, while the market favors Tyler Zink (91%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M25 Norman, OK: Tyler Zink vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Johan Alexander Rodriguez (20%) · Johan Alexander Rodriguez at 9.5¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Johan Alexander Rodriguez
5
Johan Alexander Rodriguez 20%
$8.7K
-$367.27
Research grade
AvoidJohan Alexander Rodriguez at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Tyler Zink 91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 46.8¢ | $4.9K | $4.4K | -$555.38 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
 RN1 | Tyler Zinkavg 53.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.3K | -$143.58 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
 poshposh | Tyler Zinkavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$280.33 | 59% 9923-6892 (16815) |
38 38791873984189 | Tyler Zinkavg 52.8¢ | $637.77 | $682.16 | +$49.8 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Tyler Zinkavg 52.3¢ | $17.51 | $19.07 | +$1.56 | 48% 757-817 (1574) |
Invested
$4,925.82
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$555.38
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
RN1Invested
$2,469.54
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$143.58
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
poshposhInvested
$1,041.21
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$280.33
Record
59%
9923-6892 (16815)
Invested
$637.77
Value
$682.16
PnL
+$49.8
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$17.51
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$1.56
Record
48%
757-817 (1574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.