W15 Monastir: Chenting Zhu vs Kayo Nishimura
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Kayo Nishimura (67%) · Kayo Nishimura at 68¢ · $18 held · ends Nov 7
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Neutral
Kayo Nishimura
3
Kayo Nishimura 67%
$18.42
-$2.24
Research grade
NeutralKayo Nishimura at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Kayo Nishimuraavg 81¢ | $13.09 | $10.99 | -$2.1 | 85% 5310-912 (6222) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Chenting Zhuavg 33.5¢ | $5.36 | $5.12 | -$0.24 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Kayo Nishimuraavg 65¢ | $2.21 | $2.31 | +$0.1 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.