W35 Kunshan: Wushuang Zheng vs Daria KHOMUTSIANSKAYA
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Wushuang Zheng (25%) · Wushuang Zheng at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Wushuang Zheng
4
Wushuang Zheng 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$97.2
Research grade
NeutralWushuang Zheng at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Wushuang Zhengavg 81.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$15.41 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Daria KHOMUTSIANSKAYAavg 34¢ | $81 | $152.47 | +$71.47 | 53% 3117-2749 (5866) |
GH ghostorderARB<$100 | Wushuang Zhengavg 87¢ | $569.4 | $81.75 | -$7.05 | 62% 4293-2649 (6942) |
| └ Wushuang Zheng leg | Wushuang Zhengavg 87¢ | $52.2 | $58.5 | +$17.1 | |
| └ Daria KHOMUTSIANSKAYA leg | Daria KHOMUTSIANSKAYAavg 5.1¢ | $47.4 | $23.25 | -$24.15 | |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Daria KHOMUTSIANSKAYAavg 13¢ | $10.5 | $51.69 | +$41.19 | 55% 8132-6565 (14697) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Daria KHOMUTSIANSKAYAavg 65¢ | $3.24 | $3.19 | -$0.05 | 49% 18756-19165 (37921) |
RN1Invested
$1,098.88
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$15.41
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
Invested
$81
Value
$152.47
PnL
+$71.47
Record
53%
3117-2749 (5866)
Invested
$569.4
Value
$81.75
PnL
-$7.05
Record
62%
4293-2649 (6942)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.5
Value
$51.69
PnL
+$41.19
Record
55%
8132-6565 (14697)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
18756-19165 (37921)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.