W15 Maanshan: Xichen Zhao vs Noelani Sara Teso
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Xichen Zhao (83%) · Xichen Zhao at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Xichen Zhao
6
Xichen Zhao 83%
$1.3K
$239.76
65.5¢ → 74¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralXichen Zhao at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Xichen Zhao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Xichen Zhaoavg 70.8¢ | $513.72 | $575.66 | +$101.1 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Xichen Zhaoavg 63.2¢ | $237.61 | $287.49 | +$49.88 | 54% 1541-1296 (2837) |
CI cigarettes | Xichen Zhaoavg 60.1¢ | $224.05 | $285.38 | +$61.33 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Noelani Sara Tesoavg 23.7¢ | $128.22 | $140.69 | +$12.47 | 20% 67-271 (338) |
 dips.<$100 | Xichen Zhaoavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $38.25 | +$11.75 | 41% 159-232 (391) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Xichen Zhaoavg 59.8¢ | $9.57 | $12.8 | +$3.23 | 50% 109-109 (218) |
Invested
$513.72
Value
$575.66
PnL
+$101.1
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$237.61
Value
$287.49
PnL
+$49.88
Record
54%
1541-1296 (2837)
Invested
$224.05
Value
$285.38
PnL
+$61.33
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$128.22
Value
$140.69
PnL
+$12.47
Record
20%
67-271 (338)
dips.<$100Invested
$26.5
Value
$38.25
PnL
+$11.75
Record
41%
159-232 (391)
Invested
$9.57
Value
$12.8
PnL
+$3.23
Record
50%
109-109 (218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.