M15 Maanshan: Zhao Zhao vs Sheng Tang

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sheng Tang (57%) · Sheng Tang at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Zhao Zhao18¢Sheng Tang82¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sheng Tang

Consensus Traders

Sheng Tang 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$109.52

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 82.5¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSheng Tang at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sheng Tang

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Zhao Zhao18%

Sheng Tang83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sheng Tang4 traders

Total Value$930.27

Total Shares1,318

Combined PnL+$182.56

Zhao Zhao3 traders

Total Value$255.98

Total Shares775

Combined PnL-$73.04

Sheng Tang — 57%Zhao Zhao — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Sheng Tangavg 47.4¢	$336.4	$514.03	+$177.63	38% 509-839 (1348)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Zhao Zhaoavg 34.1¢	$324.21	$391.71	+$67.51	49% 494-515 (1009)
└ Zhao Zhao leg	Zhao Zhaoavg 34.1¢	$189.21	$199.71	+$10.51
└ Sheng Tang leg	Sheng Tangavg 45¢	$135	$192	+$57
CI cigarettes	Sheng Tangavg 71¢	$368.16	$370.54	+$2.38	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
poshposhARB<$100	Zhao Zhaoavg 46.2¢	$435.23	$351.59	-$83.63	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
└ Sheng Tang leg	Sheng Tangavg 70¢	$210	$217.5	+$7.5
└ Zhao Zhao leg	Zhao Zhaoavg 46.2¢	$225.23	$134.09	-$91.13
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Zhao Zhaoavg 34.4¢	$135.52	$141.72	+$6.21	37% 909-1532 (2441)
38 38791873984189CTR	Zhao Zhaoavg 46.5¢	$335.38	$87.19	-$79.25	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Sheng Tangavg 39¢	$33.15	$35.7	+$2.55	56% 434-347 (781)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Zhao Zhaoavg 34.5¢	$27.05	$27.06	+$0.01	46% 462-548 (1010)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Sheng Tangavg 42¢	$10	$10	+$0	45% 153-186 (339)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Sheng Tang

Invested

$336.4

Value

$514.03

PnL

+$177.63

Record

38%

509-839 (1348)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Zhao Zhao

Invested

$324.21

Value

$391.71

PnL

+$67.51

Record

49%

494-515 (1009)

Both legs:

Zhao Zhao$189.2134.1¢+$10.51

Sheng Tang$13545¢+$57

cigarettes

Sheng Tang

Invested

$368.16

Value

$370.54

PnL

+$2.38

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

poshposhARB<$100

Zhao Zhao

Invested

$435.23

Value

$351.59

PnL

-$83.63

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

Both legs:

Sheng Tang$21070¢+$7.5

Zhao Zhao$225.2346.2¢-$91.13

topdogbigboiCTR

Zhao Zhao

Invested

$135.52

Value

$141.72

PnL

+$6.21

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

38791873984189CTR

Zhao Zhao

Invested

$335.38

Value

$87.19

PnL

-$79.25

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Sheng Tang

Invested

$33.15

Value

$35.7

PnL

+$2.55

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Zhao Zhao

Invested

$27.05

Value

$27.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

462-548 (1010)

glennyorkshire<$100

Sheng Tang

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

153-186 (339)

Research grade

NeutralSheng Tang at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sheng Tang

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sheng Tang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.