Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jiaqi Wang, while the market favors Junhan Zhang (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W35 Kunshan: Junhan Zhang vs Jiaqi Wang

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jiaqi Wang (50%) · Jiaqi Wang at 0.1¢ · $410 held · ends Nov 4

Junhan Zhang>99¢Jiaqi Wang<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jiaqi Wang

Consensus Traders

Jiaqi Wang 50%

Total Value

$409.91

Combined PnL

$33.9

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJiaqi Wang at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jiaqi Wang

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Junhan Zhang 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Junhan Zhang100%

Jiaqi Wang0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jiaqi Wang4 traders

Total Value$267.1

Total Shares567

Combined PnL+$38.97

Junhan Zhang4 traders

Total Value$142.81

Total Shares222

Combined PnL-$5.07

Jiaqi Wang — 50%Junhan Zhang — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghostorderCTR	Jiaqi Wangavg 43.4¢	$221.1	$260.1	+$39	62% 4251-2621 (6872)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Junhan Zhangavg 99¢	$69.3	$68.5	-$0.8	95% 22853-1149 (24002)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Junhan Zhangavg 48.7¢	$61.63	$62.06	+$0.43	49% 18554-18963 (37517)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Junhan Zhangavg 74¢	$14.8	$9.8	-$5	61% 1710-1073 (2783)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Jiaqi Wangavg 19¢	$5	$3.42	-$1.58	59% 29995-20705 (50700)
poshposhCTR<$100	Jiaqi Wangavg 20¢	$1	$2.56	+$1.55	60% 9276-6223 (15499)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Junhan Zhangavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.45	+$0.3	59% 44559-30977 (75536)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jiaqi Wangavg 4¢	$1.03	$1.03	+$0	53% 2956-2611 (5567)

ghostorderCTR

Jiaqi Wang

Invested

$221.1

Value

$260.1

PnL

+$39

Record

62%

4251-2621 (6872)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Junhan Zhang

Invested

$69.3

Value

$68.5

PnL

-$0.8

Record

95%

22853-1149 (24002)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Junhan Zhang

Invested

$61.63

Value

$62.06

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

18554-18963 (37517)

0x1111111111<$100

Junhan Zhang

Invested

$14.8

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$5

Record

61%

1710-1073 (2783)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Jiaqi Wang

Invested

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$1.58

Record

59%

29995-20705 (50700)

poshposhCTR<$100

Jiaqi Wang

Invested

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$1.55

Record

60%

9276-6223 (15499)

UpTheBlues<$100

Junhan Zhang

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.3

Record

59%

44559-30977 (75536)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jiaqi Wang

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2956-2611 (5567)

Research grade

AvoidJiaqi Wang at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jiaqi Wang

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Junhan Zhang 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jiaqi Wang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.