Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ksenia Zaytseva, while the market favors Viktoria Hruncakova (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Istanbul: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Viktoria Hruncakova

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ksenia Zaytseva (57%) · Ksenia Zaytseva at 0.1¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 5

Ksenia Zaytseva<1¢Viktoria Hruncakova>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ksenia Zaytseva

Consensus Traders

Ksenia Zaytseva 57%

Total Value

$173.7

Combined PnL

-$105.74

Smart Money Entry

24.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKsenia Zaytseva at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ksenia Zaytseva

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Viktoria Hruncakova 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ksenia Zaytseva0%

Viktoria Hruncakova100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Viktoria Hruncakova3 traders

Total Value$103.87

Total Shares131

Combined PnL-$4.11

Ksenia Zaytseva4 traders

Total Value$69.83

Total Shares701

Combined PnL-$101.63

Viktoria Hruncakova — 43%Ksenia Zaytseva — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghostorder<$100	Viktoria Hruncakovaavg 69.3¢	$76.87	$75.38	-$1.49	62% 4312-2661 (6973)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Viktoria Hruncakovaavg 76.5¢	$67.01	$27.82	-$2.68	60% 3991-2682 (6673)
RN1CTR	Ksenia Zaytsevaavg 34.6¢	$123.48	$24.25	-$99.23	54% 56006-48139 (104145)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ksenia Zaytsevaavg 23¢	$29.42	$24.18	-$5.24	49% 18807-19204 (38011)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Ksenia Zaytsevaavg 3.2¢	$8.07	$15.02	+$6.95	52% 3674-3334 (7008)
poshposhCTR<$100	Ksenia Zaytsevaavg 51.1¢	$10.49	$6.38	-$4.11	59% 9663-6648 (16311)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Viktoria Hruncakovaavg 52¢	$0.6	$0.66	+$0.06	59% 30201-20920 (51121)

ghostorder<$100

Viktoria Hruncakova

Invested

$76.87

Value

$75.38

PnL

-$1.49

Record

62%

4312-2661 (6973)

thestingsnake<$100

Viktoria Hruncakova

Invested

$67.01

Value

$27.82

PnL

-$2.68

Record

60%

3991-2682 (6673)

RN1CTR

Ksenia Zaytseva

Invested

$123.48

Value

$24.25

PnL

-$99.23

Record

54%

56006-48139 (104145)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ksenia Zaytseva

Invested

$29.42

Value

$24.18

PnL

-$5.24

Record

49%

18807-19204 (38011)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Ksenia Zaytseva

Invested

$8.07

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$6.95

Record

52%

3674-3334 (7008)

poshposhCTR<$100

Ksenia Zaytseva

Invested

$10.49

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$4.11

Record

59%

9663-6648 (16311)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Viktoria Hruncakova

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.06

Record

59%

30201-20920 (51121)

Research grade

AvoidKsenia Zaytseva at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ksenia Zaytseva

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Viktoria Hruncakova 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ksenia Zaytseva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.