W100 New Braunfels, TX: Renata Zarazua vs Xinyu Gao
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Renata Zarazua (71%) · Renata Zarazua at 59¢ · $695 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Renata Zarazua
7
Renata Zarazua 71%
$695.04
-$32.76
54¢ → 59¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRenata Zarazua at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Renata Zarazuaavg 53.2¢ | $423.21 | $346.1 | -$77.11 | 49% 18867-19279 (38146) |
 RN1CTR | Xinyu Gaoavg 47.9¢ | $236.1 | $276.4 | +$40.3 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
 poshposh<$100 | Renata Zarazuaavg 58¢ | $45.32 | $49.62 | +$4.3 | 59% 9732-6717 (16449) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Renata Zarazuaavg 77¢ | $12.32 | $10.16 | -$2.16 | 60% 4016-2700 (6716) |
98 0x98db...dd17<$100 | Renata Zarazuaavg 44¢ | $6.68 | $8.58 | +$1.9 | — |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Xinyu Gaoavg 39¢ | $2.17 | $2.17 | +$0 | 49% 674-698 (1372) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Renata Zarazuaavg 63¢ | $1.99 | $2.01 | +$0.02 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
Invested
$423.21
Value
$346.1
PnL
-$77.11
Record
49%
18867-19279 (38146)
RN1CTRInvested
$236.1
Value
$276.4
PnL
+$40.3
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
poshposh<$100Invested
$45.32
Value
$49.62
PnL
+$4.3
Record
59%
9732-6717 (16449)
Invested
$12.32
Value
$10.16
PnL
-$2.16
Record
60%
4016-2700 (6716)
Invested
$6.68
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$1.9
Record
—
Invested
$2.17
Value
$2.17
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
674-698 (1372)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.99
Value
$2.01
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.