W50 Morelia: Ana Carmen Zamburek vs Anastasia Tikhonova
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anastasia Tikhonova (40%) · Anastasia Tikhonova at 98¢ · $556 held · ends Nov 5
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Neutral
Anastasia Tikhonova
5
Anastasia Tikhonova 40%
$555.67
$23.64
73.1¢ → 97.5¢
+33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAnastasia Tikhonova at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Anastasia Tikhonovaavg 73¢ | $480.5 | $434.3 | -$46.2 | 53% 3136-2771 (5907) |
 RN1CTR | Ana Carmen Zamburekavg 12.6¢ | $43.26 | $113.67 | +$70.41 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Anastasia Tikhonovaavg 79¢ | $4.72 | $5.41 | +$0.69 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Ana Carmen Zamburekavg 11¢ | $1.43 | $1.24 | -$0.19 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Ana Carmen Zamburekavg 19¢ | $2.12 | $1.06 | -$1.06 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
Invested
$480.5
Value
$434.3
PnL
-$46.2
Record
53%
3136-2771 (5907)
RN1CTRInvested
$43.26
Value
$113.67
PnL
+$70.41
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$4.72
Value
$5.41
PnL
+$0.69
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$0.19
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$1.06
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.