W35 Kunshan: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Ksenia Efremova
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chengyiyi Yuan (75%) · Chengyiyi Yuan at 79¢ · $46 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Chengyiyi Yuan
4
Chengyiyi Yuan 75%
$45.85
-$6.61
Research grade
NeutralChengyiyi Yuan at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Chengyiyi Yuanavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.8 | +$0 | 95% 22879-1151 (24030) |
0X 0x1111111111<$100 | Chengyiyi Yuanavg 54¢ | $5.91 | $10.84 | +$4.93 | 61% 1713-1080 (2793) |
US User7429<$100 | Chengyiyi Yuanavg 46.7¢ | $4.67 | $9.9 | +$5.23 | 55% 8092-6541 (14633) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Ksenia Efremovaavg 83¢ | $20.75 | $5.3 | -$16.76 | 60% 9347-6319 (15666) |
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0
Record
95%
22879-1151 (24030)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$10.84
PnL
+$4.93
Record
61%
1713-1080 (2793)
Invested
$4.67
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$5.23
Record
55%
8092-6541 (14633)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$20.75
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$16.76
Record
60%
9347-6319 (15666)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.