W15 Antalya: Ilay Yoruk vs Diana-Ioana Simionescu

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ilay Yoruk (57%) · Ilay Yoruk at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Ilay Yoruk56¢Diana-Ioana Simionescu44¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ilay Yoruk

Consensus Traders

Ilay Yoruk 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$10.43

Research grade

NeutralIlay Yoruk at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ilay Yoruk

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ilay Yoruk56%

Diana-Ioana Simionescu44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Diana-Ioana Simionescu3 traders

Total Value$128.49

Total Shares192

Combined PnL+$3.36

Ilay Yoruk4 traders

Total Value$42.45

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$7.06

Diana-Ioana Simionescu — 43%Ilay Yoruk — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Ilay Yorukavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$220.5	52% 810-741 (1551)
└ Diana-Ioana Simionescu leg	Diana-Ioana Simionescuavg 50¢	$525	$903	+$378
└ Ilay Yoruk leg	Ilay Yorukavg 50¢	$525	$367.5	-$157.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Diana-Ioana Simionescuavg 77.6¢	$186.72	$98.55	-$28.37	48% 3196-3499 (6695)
└ Diana-Ioana Simionescu leg	Diana-Ioana Simionescuavg 77.6¢	$71.67	$56.32	-$33.03
└ Ilay Yoruk leg	Ilay Yorukavg 37.9¢	$41.08	$42.23	+$4.66
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Diana-Ioana Simionescuavg 56¢	$53.61	$53.13	-$0.48	46% 481-571 (1052)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Diana-Ioana Simionescuavg 69¢	$33.12	$41.28	+$8.16	50% 1583-1605 (3188)
dips.CTR<$100	Diana-Ioana Simionescuavg 80¢	$38.4	$34.08	-$4.32	47% 963-1084 (2047)
CI cigarettes<$100	Ilay Yorukavg 28.4¢	$17.86	$21.39	+$3.53	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
poshposh<$100	Ilay Yorukavg 29¢	$9.04	$10.59	+$1.56	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Ilay Yorukavg 28¢	$4.29	$5.37	+$1.07	37% 1016-1695 (2711)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Ilay Yorukavg 28¢	$4.2	$5.1	+$0.9	44% 361-461 (822)

NotJumpARB<$100

Ilay Yoruk

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$220.5

Record

52%

810-741 (1551)

Both legs:

Diana-Ioana Simionescu$52550¢+$378

Ilay Yoruk$52550¢-$157.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Diana-Ioana Simionescu

Invested

$186.72

Value

$98.55

PnL

-$28.37

Record

48%

3196-3499 (6695)

Both legs:

Diana-Ioana Simionescu$71.6777.6¢-$33.03

Ilay Yoruk$41.0837.9¢+$4.66

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Diana-Ioana Simionescu

Invested

$53.61

Value

$53.13

PnL

-$0.48

Record

46%

481-571 (1052)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Diana-Ioana Simionescu

Invested

$33.12

Value

$41.28

PnL

+$8.16

Record

50%

1583-1605 (3188)

dips.CTR<$100

Diana-Ioana Simionescu

Invested

$38.4

Value

$34.08

PnL

-$4.32

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

cigarettes<$100

Ilay Yoruk

Invested

$17.86

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$3.53

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

poshposh<$100

Ilay Yoruk

Invested

$9.04

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$1.56

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

topdogbigboi<$100

Ilay Yoruk

Invested

$4.29

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$1.07

Record

37%

1016-1695 (2711)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Ilay Yoruk

Invested

$4.2

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

44%

361-461 (822)

Research grade

NeutralIlay Yoruk at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ilay Yoruk

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ilay Yoruk wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.