Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold yasaman yazdani, while the market favors Theresa Stabauer (69%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W15 Antalya: yasaman yazdani vs Theresa Stabauer
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold yasaman yazdani (100%) · yasaman yazdani at 31¢ · $369 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
yasaman yazdani
4
yasaman yazdani 100%
1 arb excluded
$369.16
$21.2
Research grade
Neutralyasaman yazdani at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Theresa Stabauer 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Theresa Stabaueravg 82.6¢ | $233.17 | $252.14 | +$48.56 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
| └ yasaman yazdani leg | yasaman yazdaniavg 17.9¢ | $97.52 | $149.68 | +$62.81 | |
| └ Theresa Stabauer leg | Theresa Stabaueravg 82.6¢ | $116.72 | $102.47 | -$14.26 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | yasaman yazdaniavg 18.1¢ | $45.88 | $45.7 | -$0.19 | 54% 1599-1343 (2942) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | yasaman yazdaniavg 14¢ | $25.41 | $30.7 | +$5.29 | 49% 65-68 (133) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | yasaman yazdaniavg 22.3¢ | $14.03 | $22.62 | +$8.59 | 22% 78-284 (362) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | yasaman yazdaniavg 21¢ | $10.5 | $18 | +$7.5 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
Invested
$233.17
Value
$252.14
PnL
+$48.56
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.88
Value
$45.7
PnL
-$0.19
Record
54%
1599-1343 (2942)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$25.41
Value
$30.7
PnL
+$5.29
Record
49%
65-68 (133)
Invested
$14.03
Value
$22.62
PnL
+$8.59
Record
22%
78-284 (362)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$18
PnL
+$7.5
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.