W35 Kunshan: Yidi Yang vs JiaYi Wang
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold JiaYi Wang (60%) · JiaYi Wang at 54¢ · $961 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
JiaYi Wang
5
JiaYi Wang 60%
$960.77
$152.84
35.6¢ → 54¢
+52% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJiaYi Wang at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | JiaYi Wangavg 34.9¢ | $236.75 | $352.41 | +$115.66 | 59% 30140-20887 (51027) |
 poshposhCTR | Yidi Yangavg 65.6¢ | $294.56 | $307.76 | +$13.2 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
 RN1 | JiaYi Wangavg 36.7¢ | $165.11 | $188.43 | +$23.31 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yidi Yangavg 58.1¢ | $91.11 | $86.97 | -$4.14 | 49% 18756-19165 (37921) |
GH ghostorder<$100 | JiaYi Wangavg 34¢ | $20.4 | $25.2 | +$4.8 | 62% 4293-2649 (6942) |
Invested
$236.75
Value
$352.41
PnL
+$115.66
Record
59%
30140-20887 (51027)
poshposhCTRInvested
$294.56
Value
$307.76
PnL
+$13.2
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
RN1Invested
$165.11
Value
$188.43
PnL
+$23.31
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
Invested
$91.11
Value
$86.97
PnL
-$4.14
Record
49%
18756-19165 (37921)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$25.2
PnL
+$4.8
Record
62%
4293-2649 (6942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.