M15 Monastir: Kris van Wyk vs Lilian Marmousez
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lilian Marmousez (25%) · Lilian Marmousez at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Lilian Marmousez
4
Lilian Marmousez 25%
$2.4K
$334.91
Research grade
NeutralLilian Marmousez at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Lilian Marmousezavg 83.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$368.26 | 75% 44-15 (59) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Kris van Wykavg 16¢ | $24.75 | $22 | -$2.75 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Kris van Wykavg 16¢ | $37.28 | $6.86 | -$30.42 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Kris van Wykavg 4¢ | $0.22 | $0.04 | -$0.18 | 48% 753-814 (1567) |
Invested
$2,375.11
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$368.26
Record
75%
44-15 (59)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$24.75
Value
$22
PnL
-$2.75
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$37.28
Value
$6.86
PnL
-$30.42
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.18
Record
48%
753-814 (1567)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.