Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kai-An Wu, while the market favors Hien Pham (98%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M15 Kuala Lumpur: Kai-An Wu vs Hien Pham
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kai-An Wu (60%) · Kai-An Wu at 2.1¢ · $105 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Kai-An Wu
5
Kai-An Wu 60%
$104.73
-$20.01
Research grade
AvoidKai-An Wu at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Hien Pham 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189<$100 | Hien Phamavg 90.5¢ | $82.99 | $74.89 | -$6.93 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Kai-An Wuavg 15¢ | $27.98 | $16.78 | -$11.2 | 54% 1588-1335 (2923) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Kai-An Wuavg 6.1¢ | $9.6 | $7.84 | -$1.76 | 21% 73-279 (352) |
US User7429<$100 | Hien Phamavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $4.6 | +$1.05 | 15% 54-308 (362) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Kai-An Wuavg 26¢ | $1.78 | $0.62 | -$1.17 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
Invested
$82.99
Value
$74.89
PnL
-$6.93
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$27.98
Value
$16.78
PnL
-$11.2
Record
54%
1588-1335 (2923)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$7.84
PnL
-$1.76
Record
21%
73-279 (352)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$1.05
Record
15%
54-308 (362)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$1.17
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.