Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tsz Fu Wong, while the market favors Pawit Sornlaksup (70%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Hua Hin: Tsz Fu Wong vs Pawit Sornlaksup

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tsz Fu Wong (60%) · Tsz Fu Wong at 30¢ · $179 held · ends Nov 18

Tsz Fu Wong30¢Pawit Sornlaksup70¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tsz Fu Wong

Consensus Traders

Tsz Fu Wong 60%

Total Value

$178.83

Combined PnL

$32.5

Research grade

AvoidTsz Fu Wong at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tsz Fu Wong

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Pawit Sornlaksup 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tsz Fu Wong30%

Pawit Sornlaksup70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pawit Sornlaksup2 traders

Total Value$102.77

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$11.69

Tsz Fu Wong3 traders

Total Value$76.06

Total Shares263

Combined PnL+$44.2

Pawit Sornlaksup — 40%Tsz Fu Wong — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Tsz Fu Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPawit Sornlaksup 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Tsz Fu Wong 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Pawit Sornlaksupavg 71.9¢	$83.4	$75.4	-$8	27% 141-378 (519)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Tsz Fu Wongavg 4.1¢	$6.97	$44.52	+$37.55	49% 612-639 (1251)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pawit Sornlaksupavg 93.1¢	$31.06	$27.37	-$3.69	48% 1171-1252 (2423)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Tsz Fu Wongavg 26.5¢	$19.93	$26.32	+$6.39	53% 5602-5022 (10624)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Tsz Fu Wongavg 25.2¢	$4.96	$5.22	+$0.26	53% 1745-1547 (3292)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Pawit Sornlaksup

Invested

$83.4

Value

$75.4

PnL

-$8

Record

27%

141-378 (519)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Tsz Fu Wong

Invested

$6.97

Value

$44.52

PnL

+$37.55

Record

49%

612-639 (1251)

38791873984189<$100

Pawit Sornlaksup

Invested

$31.06

Value

$27.37

PnL

-$3.69

Record

48%

1171-1252 (2423)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Tsz Fu Wong

Invested

$19.93

Value

$26.32

PnL

+$6.39

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Tsz Fu Wong

Invested

$4.96

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

1745-1547 (3292)

Research grade

AvoidTsz Fu Wong at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Tsz Fu Wong

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Pawit Sornlaksup 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Tsz Fu Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPawit Sornlaksup 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Tsz Fu Wong 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tsz Fu Wong wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.8%

29.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$214.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

314.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.