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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Mia Wainwright — but Ida Wobker won instead.

W50 Funchal: Ida Wobker vs Mia Wainwright

Resolved Ida Wobker. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Mia Wainwright. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Mia Wainwright 86%

Total Value

$2.58

Combined PnL

-$294.91

Smart Money Signal

Mia Wainwright

7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ida Wobker100%

Mia Wainwright0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mia Wainwright7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,780

Combined PnL-$295.43

Ida Wobker1 trader

Total Value$2.58

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$0.52

Mia Wainwright — 88%Ida Wobker — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Mia Wainwrightavg 18.6¢	$99.45	—	-$99.45	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mia Wainwrightavg 18.4¢	$72.17	—	-$72.17	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Mia Wainwrightavg 16.3¢	$59.64	—	-$59.64	49% 629-659 (1288)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Mia Wainwrightavg 15.5¢	$54.4	—	-$54.4	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Mia Wainwrightavg 7.3¢	$8.41	—	-$8.41	46% 873-1017 (1890)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Ida Wobkeravg 79.9¢	$2.06	$2.58	+$0.52	41% 718-1033 (1751)
dips.CTR<$100	Mia Wainwrightavg 6.6¢	$1.3	—	-$1.3	48% 1294-1381 (2675)
NO NotJumpCTR	Mia Wainwrightavg 50¢	$1.1K	—	-$0.05	50% 1112-1113 (2225)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$99.45

Value

—

PnL

-$99.45

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$72.17

Value

—

PnL

-$72.17

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Invested

$59.64

Value

—

PnL

-$59.64

Record

49%

629-659 (1288)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$54.4

Value

—

PnL

-$54.4

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$8.41

Value

—

PnL

-$8.41

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.52

Record

41%

718-1033 (1751)

Invested

$1.3

Value

—

PnL

-$1.3

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

Invested

$1,050

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Smart Money Signal

Mia Wainwright

7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x701f8059...254142

Slug

itf-wobker1-wainwr1-2026-11-15

Traders in this Market

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Mia Wainwright — $0

38791873984189

Mia Wainwright — $0

CandleHammerDrums

Mia Wainwright — $0

topdogbigboi

Mia Wainwright — $0

smithagent

Mia Wainwright — $0

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Ida Wobker — $2.58

dips.

Mia Wainwright — $0

NotJump

Mia Wainwright — $0

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