W35 Kunshan: Sijia Wei vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sijia Wei (83%) · Sijia Wei at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Sijia Wei
6
Sijia Wei 83%
$2.5K
$453.33
75.9¢ → 82.1¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSijia Wei at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Sijia Wei. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghostorder | Sijia Weiavg 72.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$380.26 | 62% 4344-2672 (7016) |
 RN1 | Sijia Weiavg 72.8¢ | $415.56 | $509.53 | +$93.97 | 54% 56250-48415 (104665) |
 poshposh | Sijia Weiavg 95.7¢ | $308.15 | $314.91 | +$6.76 | 59% 9826-6844 (16670) |
38 38791873984189 | Sijia Weiavg 76.6¢ | $187.47 | $145.59 | -$26.48 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Sijia Weiavg 87¢ | $17.4 | $19.4 | +$2 | 86% 4989-844 (5833) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Priska Madelyn Nugrohoavg 7.9¢ | $4.4 | $1.23 | -$3.18 | 48% 713-759 (1472) |
Invested
$1,089.67
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$380.26
Record
62%
4344-2672 (7016)
RN1Invested
$415.56
Value
$509.53
PnL
+$93.97
Record
54%
56250-48415 (104665)
poshposhInvested
$308.15
Value
$314.91
PnL
+$6.76
Record
59%
9826-6844 (16670)
Invested
$187.47
Value
$145.59
PnL
-$26.48
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$17.4
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$2
Record
86%
4989-844 (5833)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$3.18
Record
48%
713-759 (1472)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.