M15 Antalya: Alan Wazny vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Alan Wazny (90%) · Alan Wazny at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21

Alan Wazny55¢Stefan Adrian Andreescu45¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alan Wazny

Consensus Traders

Alan Wazny 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$38.71

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 55¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlan Wazny at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alan Wazny

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alan Wazny55%

Stefan Adrian Andreescu45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alan Wazny9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,008

Combined PnL+$40.71

Stefan Adrian Andreescu1 trader

Total Value$8.5

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$2

Alan Wazny — 90%Stefan Adrian Andreescu — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Alan Wazny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlan Wazny 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Alan Wazny 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Alan Waznyavg 50¢	$1.1K	$934.5	-$115.5	52% 793-723 (1516)
└ Alan Wazny leg	Alan Waznyavg 50¢	$525	$577.5	+$52.5
└ Stefan Adrian Andreescu leg	Stefan Adrian Andreescuavg 50¢	$525	$357	-$168
38 38791873984189	Alan Waznyavg 62.1¢	$681.52	$489.67	-$64.97	48% 3155-3450 (6605)
poshposh	Alan Waznyavg 47.7¢	$354.49	$409.09	+$54.6	48% 1068-1142 (2210)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Alan Waznyavg 53¢	$212	$220	+$8	38% 526-863 (1389)
TO topdogbigboi	Alan Waznyavg 41¢	$159.34	$213.49	+$54.15	38% 981-1634 (2615)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Alan Waznyavg 55.6¢	$152.63	$151.06	-$1.57	49% 505-529 (1034)
dips.	Alan Waznyavg 58.9¢	$138.69	$129.5	-$9.19	47% 940-1065 (2005)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Alan Waznyavg 48.1¢	$24.05	$27.49	+$3.45	44% 352-457 (809)
SM smithagent<$100	Alan Waznyavg 67¢	$18.09	$14.85	-$3.24	44% 632-791 (1423)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Alan Waznyavg 58¢	$9.99	$9.48	-$0.52	45% 155-189 (344)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Stefan Adrian Andreescuavg 42¢	$10.5	$8.5	-$2	50% 1551-1563 (3114)

NotJumpARB<$100

Alan Wazny

Invested

$1,050

Value

$934.5

PnL

-$115.5

Record

52%

793-723 (1516)

Both legs:

Alan Wazny$52550¢+$52.5

Stefan Adrian Andreescu$52550¢-$168

38791873984189

Alan Wazny

Invested

$681.52

Value

$489.67

PnL

-$64.97

Record

48%

3155-3450 (6605)

poshposh

Alan Wazny

Invested

$354.49

Value

$409.09

PnL

+$54.6

Record

48%

1068-1142 (2210)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Alan Wazny

Invested

$212

Value

$220

PnL

+$8

Record

38%

526-863 (1389)

topdogbigboi

Alan Wazny

Invested

$159.34

Value

$213.49

PnL

+$54.15

Record

38%

981-1634 (2615)

CandleHammerDrums

Alan Wazny

Invested

$152.63

Value

$151.06

PnL

-$1.57

Record

49%

505-529 (1034)

dips.

Alan Wazny

Invested

$138.69

Value

$129.5

PnL

-$9.19

Record

47%

940-1065 (2005)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Alan Wazny

Invested

$24.05

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$3.45

Record

44%

352-457 (809)

smithagent<$100

Alan Wazny

Invested

$18.09

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$3.24

Record

44%

632-791 (1423)

glennyorkshire<$100

Alan Wazny

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$0.52

Record

45%

155-189 (344)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Stefan Adrian Andreescu

Invested

$10.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1551-1563 (3114)

Research grade

NeutralAlan Wazny at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Alan Wazny

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Alan Wazny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlan Wazny 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Alan Wazny 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alan Wazny wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.