Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold JiaYi Wang, while the market favors Wushuang Zheng (90%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W35 Kunshan: JiaYi Wang vs Wushuang Zheng

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold JiaYi Wang (75%) · JiaYi Wang at 10¢ · $66 held · ends Nov 6

JiaYi Wang10¢Wushuang Zheng90¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

JiaYi Wang

Consensus Traders

JiaYi Wang 75%

Total Value

$65.82

Combined PnL

-$33.23

Research grade

AvoidJiaYi Wang at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

JiaYi Wang

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Wushuang Zheng 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiaYi Wang10%

Wushuang Zheng90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

JiaYi Wang3 traders

Total Value$47.82

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$33.43

Wushuang Zheng1 trader

Total Value$18

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.2

JiaYi Wang — 75%Wushuang Zheng — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 31.6¢	$74.98	$41.54	-$33.44	46% 7787-9202 (16989)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Wushuang Zhengavg 89¢	$17.8	$18	+$0.2	86% 4989-844 (5833)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 27¢	$16.73	$5.1	+$0.59	48% 713-759 (1472)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 14.9¢	$1.75	$1.18	-$0.58	39% 3126-4927 (8053)

38791873984189CTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$74.98

Value

$41.54

PnL

-$33.44

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Wushuang Zheng

Invested

$17.8

Value

$18

PnL

+$0.2

Record

86%

4989-844 (5833)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$16.73

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.59

Record

48%

713-759 (1472)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.58

Record

39%

3126-4927 (8053)

Research grade

AvoidJiaYi Wang at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

JiaYi Wang

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Wushuang Zheng 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that JiaYi Wang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.