W50 Yokohama: Yuhan Wang vs Sayaka Ishii

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yuhan Wang (86%) · Yuhan Wang at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Yuhan Wang98¢Sayaka Ishii2¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yuhan Wang

Consensus Traders

Yuhan Wang 86%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$46.18

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 97.5¢

+62% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYuhan Wang at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yuhan Wang

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yuhan Wang98%

Sayaka Ishii3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yuhan Wang6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,468

Combined PnL+$179.11

Sayaka Ishii1 trader

Total Value$62.85

Total Shares599

Combined PnL-$132.93

Yuhan Wang — 86%Sayaka Ishii — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Yuhan Wangavg 65.3¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$300.1	48% 1171-1252 (2423)
RN1	Yuhan Wangavg 53¢	$991.82	$894.86	-$96.95	57% 3975-2973 (6948)
US User7429	Yuhan Wangavg 93¢	$172	$172.98	+$0.98	22% 95-336 (431)
CI cigarettes	Yuhan Wangavg 60.3¢	$103.14	$100.89	-$2.25	53% 5602-5022 (10624)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Sayaka Ishiiavg 32.7¢	$195.78	$62.85	-$132.93	27% 141-378 (519)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yuhan Wangavg 86¢	$49.99	$27.9	-$22.09	27% 172-461 (633)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Yuhan Wangavg 50¢	$17	$16.32	-$0.68	53% 1745-1547 (3292)

38791873984189

Yuhan Wang

Invested

$1,344.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$300.1

Record

48%

1171-1252 (2423)

RN1

Yuhan Wang

Invested

$991.82

Value

$894.86

PnL

-$96.95

Record

57%

3975-2973 (6948)

User7429

Yuhan Wang

Invested

$172

Value

$172.98

PnL

+$0.98

Record

22%

95-336 (431)

cigarettes

Yuhan Wang

Invested

$103.14

Value

$100.89

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$195.78

Value

$62.85

PnL

-$132.93

Record

27%

141-378 (519)

pauleta23<$100

Yuhan Wang

Invested

$49.99

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$22.09

Record

27%

172-461 (633)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Yuhan Wang

Invested

$17

Value

$16.32

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

1745-1547 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralYuhan Wang at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yuhan Wang

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yuhan Wang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.