Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Alice Gillan, while the market favors Daniela Vismane (52%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W75 Glasgow: Daniela Vismane vs Alice Gillan
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Gillan (67%) · Alice Gillan at 48¢ · $178 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Alice Gillan
3
Alice Gillan 67%
$177.98
-$22.96
45.6¢ → 48¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlice Gillan at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Daniela Vismane 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghostorderCTR | Alice Gillanavg 46¢ | $193.2 | $170.8 | -$12.71 | 62% 4229-2609 (6838) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Alice Gillanavg 41.6¢ | $12.64 | $4.56 | -$8.08 | 60% 9086-6001 (15087) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Daniela Vismaneavg 95¢ | $4.8 | $2.63 | -$2.17 | 60% 3897-2643 (6540) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.