M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Juan Bautista Torres vs Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Bautista Torres (40%) · Juan Bautista Torres at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 20

Juan Bautista Torres>99¢Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Bautista Torres

Consensus Traders

Juan Bautista Torres 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$201.19

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Juan Bautista Torres100%

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Bautista Torres4 traders

Total Value$555.3

Total Shares466

Combined PnL+$88.29

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna6 traders

Total Value$562.24

Total Shares1,663

Combined PnL+$112.89

Juan Bautista Torres — 40%Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$62.28	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 50¢	$525	$724.5	+$199.5
└ Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna leg	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 50¢	$525	$387.78	-$137.22
SM smithagent	Juan Bautista Torresavg 92.9¢	$313.49	$337.3	+$23.81	43% 507-662 (1169)
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 27.4¢	$251.08	$292.79	+$41.71	48% 10-11 (21)
RN1	Juan Bautista Torresavg 62¢	$105.6	$190.61	+$85.01	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 36.4¢	$114.25	$165.69	+$51.44	44% 392-498 (890)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 22.3¢	$71.15	$89.27	+$18.13	48% 425-457 (882)
US User7429<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 91.3¢	$33.43	$20.15	-$13.28	36% 252-442 (694)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 5.7¢	$10.28	$12.63	+$2.35	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 69¢	$14.49	$7.24	-$7.25	36% 432-771 (1203)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.85	-$0.3	56% 309-246 (555)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Tavernaavg 2¢	$0.44	$0.01	-$0.43	45% 595-734 (1329)

NotJumpARB<$100

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$62.28

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Juan Bautista Torres$52550¢+$199.5

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna$52550¢-$137.22

smithagent

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$313.49

Value

$337.3

PnL

+$23.81

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Invested

$251.08

Value

$292.79

PnL

+$41.71

Record

48%

10-11 (21)

RN1

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$105.6

Value

$190.61

PnL

+$85.01

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Invested

$114.25

Value

$165.69

PnL

+$51.44

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Invested

$71.15

Value

$89.27

PnL

+$18.13

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

User7429<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$33.43

Value

$20.15

PnL

-$13.28

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Invested

$10.28

Value

$12.63

PnL

+$2.35

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$14.49

Value

$7.24

PnL

-$7.25

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

lryyyCTR<$100

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.43

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Bautista Torres wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.