M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Juan Bautista Torres vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez (67%) · Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Juan Bautista Torres37¢Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez63¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 67%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$242.12

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 63¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Juan Bautista Torres37%

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez6 traders

Total Value$916.69

Total Shares1,324

Combined PnL-$212.23

Juan Bautista Torres3 traders

Total Value$86.6

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$29.89

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez — 67%Juan Bautista Torres — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguezavg 50¢	$1.1K	$871.5	-$178.5	54% 475-399 (874)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 43.2¢	$42.83	$36.67	-$6.15	48% 350-384 (734)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 80¢	$88.68	$35.72	-$17.69	42% 353-481 (834)
dips.<$100	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguezavg 11¢	$4.29	$19.31	+$15.02	45% 544-659 (1203)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguezavg 31¢	$44.33	$15.73	-$28.6	52% 192-174 (366)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 72¢	$20.26	$14.21	-$6.05	53% 6207-5499 (11706)
RN1<$100	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguezavg 34¢	$19.06	$6.17	-$12.89	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguezavg 31¢	$10	$3.55	-$6.45	44% 102-128 (230)
38 38791873984189<$100	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguezavg 31¢	$1.24	$0.44	-$0.8	48% 2255-2437 (4692)

NotJump

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Invested

$1,050

Value

$871.5

PnL

-$178.5

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$42.83

Value

$36.67

PnL

-$6.15

Record

48%

350-384 (734)

smithagentCTR<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$88.68

Value

$35.72

PnL

-$17.69

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

dips.<$100

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Invested

$4.29

Value

$19.31

PnL

+$15.02

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Invested

$44.33

Value

$15.73

PnL

-$28.6

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$20.26

Value

$14.21

PnL

-$6.05

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

RN1<$100

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Invested

$19.06

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$12.89

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

glennyorkshire<$100

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Invested

$10

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$6.45

Record

44%

102-128 (230)

38791873984189<$100

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Invested

$1.24

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.