W15 Maanshan: Alina Tikhonova vs Thasaporn Naklo

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Thasaporn Naklo (78%) · Thasaporn Naklo at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Alina Tikhonova38¢Thasaporn Naklo62¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Thasaporn Naklo

Consensus Traders

Thasaporn Naklo 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$57.46

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 62.5¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralThasaporn Naklo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thasaporn Naklo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alina Tikhonova38%

Thasaporn Naklo63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thasaporn Naklo7 traders

Total Value$602.17

Total Shares1,147

Combined PnL+$97.43

Alina Tikhonova2 traders

Total Value$138.4

Total Shares313

Combined PnL-$39.97

Thasaporn Naklo — 78%Alina Tikhonova — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Thasaporn Naklo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThasaporn Naklo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Thasaporn Naklo 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Thasaporn Nakloavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ Alina Tikhonova leg	Alina Tikhonovaavg 50¢	$525	$651	+$126
└ Thasaporn Naklo leg	Thasaporn Nakloavg 50¢	$525	$399	-$126
38 38791873984189	Thasaporn Nakloavg 48.3¢	$360.4	$390.13	+$110.95	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
TO topdogbigboi	Thasaporn Nakloavg 40.1¢	$113.69	$107.71	-$5.98	37% 819-1385 (2204)
poshposhCTR<$100	Alina Tikhonovaavg 60.2¢	$76.53	$78.86	+$2.34	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
CI cigarettes<$100	Thasaporn Nakloavg 45¢	$70.84	$59.82	-$11.02	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Alina Tikhonovaavg 54.7¢	$101.84	$59.53	-$42.3	37% 497-832 (1329)
dips.<$100	Thasaporn Nakloavg 34¢	$12.58	$20.9	+$8.32	47% 860-963 (1823)
alpheclabs2<$100	Thasaporn Nakloavg 43.8¢	$17.02	$14.77	-$2.25	45% 258-310 (568)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Thasaporn Nakloavg 47.8¢	$6.35	$5.06	-$1.3	44% 343-444 (787)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Thasaporn Nakloavg 51¢	$5.08	$3.78	-$1.29	48% 462-493 (955)

NotJumpARB<$100

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

Alina Tikhonova$52550¢+$126

Thasaporn Naklo$52550¢-$126

38791873984189

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$360.4

Value

$390.13

PnL

+$110.95

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

topdogbigboi

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$113.69

Value

$107.71

PnL

-$5.98

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

poshposhCTR<$100

Alina Tikhonova

Invested

$76.53

Value

$78.86

PnL

+$2.34

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

cigarettes<$100

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$70.84

Value

$59.82

PnL

-$11.02

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Alina Tikhonova

Invested

$101.84

Value

$59.53

PnL

-$42.3

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

dips.<$100

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$12.58

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$8.32

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

alpheclabs2<$100

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$17.02

Value

$14.77

PnL

-$2.25

Record

45%

258-310 (568)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$6.35

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$1.3

Record

44%

343-444 (787)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Thasaporn Naklo

Invested

$5.08

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$1.29

Record

48%

462-493 (955)

Research grade

NeutralThasaporn Naklo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thasaporn Naklo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Thasaporn Naklo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThasaporn Naklo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Thasaporn Naklo 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thasaporn Naklo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.