W50 Chihuahua: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Miriana Tona

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anastasia Tikhonova (40%) · Anastasia Tikhonova at 78¢ · $903 held · ends Nov 17

Anastasia Tikhonova78¢Miriana Tona22¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anastasia Tikhonova

Consensus Traders

Anastasia Tikhonova 40%

Total Value

$902.88

Combined PnL

-$29.23

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 78¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnastasia Tikhonova at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anastasia Tikhonova

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Anastasia Tikhonova78%

Miriana Tona22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anastasia Tikhonova2 traders

Total Value$659

Total Shares863

Combined PnL+$49.44

Miriana Tona3 traders

Total Value$243.89

Total Shares966

Combined PnL-$78.67

Anastasia Tikhonova — 40%Miriana Tona — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Anastasia Tikhonovaavg 71.2¢	$599.95	$644.9	+$44.94	54% 1637-1401 (3038)
RN1CTR	Miriana Tonaavg 31.3¢	$304.6	$231.79	-$72.81	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Anastasia Tikhonovaavg 48¢	$9.6	$14.1	+$4.5	19% 83-349 (432)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 46.7¢	$16.34	$10.33	-$6.02	48% 917-990 (1907)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 27¢	$1.62	$1.77	+$0.15	50% 71-71 (142)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Anastasia Tikhonova

Invested

$599.95

Value

$644.9

PnL

+$44.94

Record

54%

1637-1401 (3038)

RN1CTR

Miriana Tona

Invested

$304.6

Value

$231.79

PnL

-$72.81

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

thestingsnake<$100

Anastasia Tikhonova

Invested

$9.6

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$4.5

Record

19%

83-349 (432)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$16.34

Value

$10.33

PnL

-$6.02

Record

48%

917-990 (1907)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

71-71 (142)

Research grade

NeutralAnastasia Tikhonova at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anastasia Tikhonova

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anastasia Tikhonova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.