M15 Zamora: Kai Thompson vs Matteo Covato
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Matteo Covato (50%) · Matteo Covato at 72¢ · $89 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Matteo Covato
6
Matteo Covato 50%
$88.67
-$1.7
Research grade
NeutralMatteo Covato at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Matteo Covato. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Matteo Covatoavg 43¢ | $21.5 | $37.25 | +$15.75 | 53% 5757-5140 (10897) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Kai Thompsonavg 50¢ | $28.5 | $15.96 | -$12.54 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Matteo Covatoavg 52¢ | $12.6 | $15.03 | +$2.42 | 49% 677-717 (1394) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Matteo Covatoavg 62¢ | $7.41 | $8.47 | +$1.05 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Kai Thompsonavg 50¢ | $15 | $8.4 | -$6.6 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Kai Thompsonavg 42¢ | $5.35 | $3.57 | -$1.78 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
Invested
$21.5
Value
$37.25
PnL
+$15.75
Record
53%
5757-5140 (10897)
Invested
$28.5
Value
$15.96
PnL
-$12.54
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$15.03
PnL
+$2.42
Record
49%
677-717 (1394)
Invested
$7.41
Value
$8.47
PnL
+$1.05
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$15
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$6.6
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$1.78
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.